Have the COVID-19 vaccines caused over 20,000 deaths?

Recently, anti-vaccine advocates have been pointing out that there have been over 20,000 deaths from the COVID-19 vaccine that have been reported to the VAERS database. If you’re not familiar with VAERS, you can find a wealth of information in my previous post. In short, VAERS is a passive reporting database that serves merely as an early warning system for potential vaccine adverse events. Anyone can submit a report to it, and a report in VAERS does not necessarily mean that the adverse event was caused by the vaccine.

Nevertheless, for the sake of argument, let’s be charitable to the anti-vaxxers and assume that all of these reports are indeed legitimate in that each report involved a death occurring within 30 days of injection. All of the following numbers are accurate at the time of this writing (August 12th, 2021).

In the USA, 49.97% of the US population (over 164 million people) have received both vaccine doses since the vaccine was available less than a year ago.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations as of Aug 12, 2021.

How many of those people would have died regardless of being vaccinated? To answer this, we can look at the base rate of deaths in United States over a 1 year period. For 2019, when the COVID vaccine was not available to anyone, the death rate was 8.7 per 1,000 people. But wait, the COVID-19 vaccine has only been widely available since January, so let’s conservatively adjust and say that 5.8 per 1,000 people would die between January-July inclusive. (8.7 * 7/12 months)

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN?locations=US as of Aug, 2021.

This means that out of those 164 million people with 2 doses, we would expect approximately 0.95 million (164 million x 0.58%) of those individuals to die in between Jan-Jul, from other causes. If we account for the fact that these individuals had two shots, then there are 60 days in this period in which they were within the 30 day window of having received a vaccine dose. This accounts for roughly 28.6% of the period between Jan-Jul (2/7 months).

Adjusting the 0.95 million by 28.6% means that on average, we would expect 271,700 people to die within 30 days of receiving the vaccine, from causes other than the vaccine.

Note that the expected number of coincidental deaths following the vaccine is roughly 13.6 times higher than the number of deaths reported in the VAERS database.

Of course, anti-vaxxers would now point out that VAERS suffers from under-reporting. This is true. In fact, the VAERS website states that under-reporting is a limitation of passive surveillance systems and the “degree of under-reporting varies widely.” However, this is a far cry from any sort of proof that the vaccine is causing deaths. Presently, we don’t have a reliable way of verifying how much under-reporting is taking place. Moreover, we could inflate the number of reports to account for the under-reporting, but this would not change that the VAERS reports do not necessarily imply a causal connection. Finally, we don’t have any good evidence to suggest that the COVID vaccine is causing death in the first place.

When we take into account these statistics, there is literally nothing compelling about anti-vaxxers’ claims of COVID vaccine deaths.

28 thoughts on “Have the COVID-19 vaccines caused over 20,000 deaths?

  1. So just curious, I have a blood disease, I have always believed in vaccinations but there is no study to show that taking the vaccination will not have a dire effect. Am I an anti anti-vaxxer? My doctor, that knows to be said he does not know how it will affect me? Do you think that maybe making it a political football and insulting people the have genuine concern is the best way to get your message across?

    There are a lot of people scared and calling them names maybe how you got your point across in the 7th grade but maybe you should try a different approach.


      • And what reason is there to believe that the vaccine would Not lead to my wife & I having adverse reactions or serious problems (and/or death) from the vaccine?


      • Perhaps the fact that there have been billions of doses administered and adverse reactions have proven to be extremely rare… Maybe the fact that pretty much every top scientist, doctor and medical organization in the world recognizes that the risk from COVID is far higher than the risk of the vaccine.

        Liked by 2 people

  2. Top poster has a very good point. There simply hasn’t been enough study of the vaccine to verify that it’s safe. The term “anti vaxxer” is an easy way to dismiss skepticism over this. It’s better to take the skepticism seriously so we can actually do an accurate cost/benefit analysis. I don’t know if the vaccine is causing a lot of harm, only time will tell. However, I’ve got a 99.98% chance of surviving this virus, so why would I take the chance in myself or my unborn child? Seems like common sense to me.


      • It is NOT the most studied in the world. It killed all of the animals in trials, and It’s killing people. It’s not even approved. Only for emergency use. The Government, CDC, Big Pharma is lying to everyone!

        The spike protein was supposed to stay in the muscle and it’s not. It’s even breaking through the blood brain barrier. TRILLIONS NOT MILLIONS, TRILLIONS of tiny blood clots are forming in everyone’s body. The jab’s Spike Protein spikes are getting stuck in the veins and creating blood clots. The mRNA is designed to recognize “COVID” and create proteins to help protect you but it’s not. The main concern is when people get sick with the flu or even the common cold. The body won’t be able to produce antibodies to fight, therefor your body way kill itself!


        Robert Malone, Jane Ruby, Judy Mikovich, Sherry Tenpenny, Dr. Simone Gold

        Liked by 1 person

      • You’ve gone down the conspiracy rabbit hole… those are not reliable sources. See my previous post about Sherry Tenpenny. She is a quack.


  3. Do you consider anyone who is concerned about this vaccine as an “anti-vaxxer”? Even those who have taken every other vaccine and have their children up to date on their vaccines? You don’t have to be an “anti-vaxxer” to recognize some red flags with the safety and previously promised efficacy of this vaccine. Interesting use of the term “anti-vaxxer”. If you really listen to people, we aren’t all so cleanly lumped into pro-vax and anti-vax camps. I find your post smelling of agenda and intentionally divisive rhetoric. I think you should try again without that junk, if you want to be taken seriously.

    Liked by 1 person

      • Anti science is when any opposing opinion is silenced, ridiculed, shamed, banned. Using your 20,000 deaths math, why not apply it to Death by Covid vs. death with Covid. The lies, deception, misinformation, flip flops and government overreach, is what causes the prudent person to pause and rethink before taking the jab.

        Your initial response clearly shows your elitist bias. Science has recently shown that masks and mandates have had little to no positive effect re Covid. Yet, MSM refuses to report these most recent findings.

        Liked by 1 person

      • You lash out a lot… ‘anti-vax, anti-science’… You need to think deeper brother.
        Do you know that this vaccine is brand new? Did you know it attacks spike proteins unlike your past vaccines? You are right that a lot of people have gotten it, and not a lot are having bad symptoms, but it is a lot of deaths, and it is true this new method of vaccine has indeed NOT been tested other than what the good people on here share about the lab animals dying in pretty good numbers. And the young athletes having heart issues more now. 3 to 5 years is a standard for even a standard vaccine to test. EUA and R0cketMan


      • Show me a single reputable source that shows a death due to a COVID vaccine. No death has been causally linked. And heart issues with athletes? Any good source for that? Any good evidence to show that’s not due to COVID infection or some other cause, rather than the vaccine? The only one who needs to “think deeper” is you. Raise your standard of evidence – it is embarrassingly low.


      • Can you offer a source for that? (I have a particular interest in etymology — but when you say they “made it p” it suggests you’re just speaking from a certain viewpoint.

        “Anti-vaccine” dates back to 1800 and had a big revival in the early 1990s; the spelling “vax” took off in 2005 with the terms “anti-vax” and a bit later, “anti-vaxxer” (which really only means “against vaccines”).

        The fact that it now has a negative overlay probably relates more to the stridency of those who take that position than to any conspiracy to undercut them. (That is a phenomenon across language — for example words related to mental illness keep being changed as they become tainted. It’s called “semantic pejoration”. Over time, words are far more likely to take on a negative gloss than a positive one. Then a new euphemism is adopted, gets tainted, and a new one is invented. (Think of how disability-related words have shifted.)


  4. Well said Mr. Friend, I find it interesting that the folks who have willingly taken the vaccine do not believe that the so called “Anti-Vaxxers”, should not have the same privilege’s in deciding there own medical decisions. Be careful “America” of the rights you are so willing to give up!


    • You have every right to make your own medical decisions. But you’re putting others at risk by not getting vaxxed and going out into society. It’s that simple. Freedom of choice doesn’t mean freedom from consequences.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Some people are immune-compromised and can’t get vaccinated. Additionally, vaccines are not 100% effective, so just because someone else is vaccinated doesn’t mean they are 100% immune. You could still transmit to them.


  5. Two things need fixing.
    1. It’s NOT a vaccine. It’s an Experimental drug. We are the Guinea Pigs
    2. Just because a person doesn’t want to be a Guinea Pig does NOT make them anti-vaxx. It makes you educated!
    3. To jessicaice2 The vaccinated are what is called shedding. Research it.

    Research: Robert Malone, Sherry Tenpenny, Dr. Jane Ruby

    Liked by 1 person

    • Well, that’s just dumb.

      1. Any preparation used as a preventive inoculation to confer immunity against a specific disease to stimulate antibody production is a vaccine.

      Something that trains your immune system to produce antibodies (proteins that fight disease), exactly like it would if you were exposed to the disease” is a vaccine.

      A preparation that is administered to stimulate the body’s immune response against a specific infectious disease is a vaccine.

      The CDC considers these to be vaccines.
      The FDA considers these to be vaccines.
      The NIH considers these to be vaccines.
      The NHS considers these to be vaccines.
      The EMA considers these to be vaccines.
      The WHO considers these to be vaccines.
      ALL the governmental medical agencies world-wide consider these to be vaccines.

      If you want to argue for some reason that these vaccines are NOT vaccines, then you are ignorant and a complete fµ©king idiot.

      2. Not wanting to get vaccinated just beans that you are gullible enough to believe the anti-vaxx industry lies.

      3. There is no virus to “shed” in these vaccines.

      AND: none of those people have any credibility in the scientific community.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. I did it slightly different:

    Out of a random US population of 1 million people, 23 people will die every day (on average).

    We have (now) vaccinated about 200M people.

    That means, in the 30 days after vaccination, 200 X 23 X 30 X 2 = 276,000 coincidental deaths following vaccination.

    Using your number of 164M, you get 1634 X 23 X 30 X 2 = 226,320 coincidental deaths following vaccination.

    (of course, I didn’t count for J&J single dose vaccines…)

    Liked by 1 person

  7. I have a very good chance of surviving if I do Contract the disease. Not sure about the risks of taking the vaccine. The predictions are wildly contradictory. I am 100% sure I will not be negatively affected by the vaccine if I don’t take it. Why should the vaccinated people care if I choose not to get it?

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Hi, Vaers has 23,000 or so deaths attributed to the vaccine. The EU reporting site has 32,000 or so deaths because of vaccine. So you believe that 55,000 people who are reported dead by medical experts have made an error that none of these people died from the vaccine? For the Swine Flu in 1976 54 people died and the vaccine was stopped. If VAERS reports 200,000 deaths due to this vaccine would you consider that if its under reported then potentially 1,000,000 died from the vaccine? Would that be enough to cause alarm? How many people do you think died from the vaccine is it zero? Do we even know? I think the dumbest part of an MRNA vaccine is that each body produces an unknown quantity of spike protein. Wouldn’t it be much better to give soneone a known amount of a drug instead of a random amount produced? Is there any safety measure at all that you trust to say how many people died from the vaccine? If so, how many deaths are deemed acceptable before the vaccine is pulled. I have a .2 percent chance of dying from COVID so no vaccine is really needed. I think the vaccine is a reverse lottery you take it to keep your job but pray it does not take your life or keep you from working. Could you provide a 10 year study on these vaccines? Showing the long term side affects? Probably not so I will take my .2 percent chance at least I will onow what I have instead of an unproven non working “vaccine” permanently stuck in my body.


    • VAERS is not all reported by medical experts. Anyone can submit a report. VAERS does not prove any causation. The giant disclaimer says exactly this when you log in to the VAERS database. Please have a basic understanding of what VAERS is before going on and on about a subject in which you have zero expertise.


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